A dedicated 6-month coaching program with weekly 1-on-1 sessions, continuous trade review, and personalised feedback built around your process — from someone who trades full-time and is truly passionate about the markets.
In 2026, Tobias begins a new chapter — joining a private equity hedge fund as a professional discretionary trader, trading his strategy for a professional CTA money manager. The Trading Tropical mentorship program continues alongside this role.
Spots are limited. Applications are reviewed individually. The better the fit in style and time horizon, the better the outcome for both of us.
Everything I recommend below is freely discoverable or comes at a relatively low cost. The value of this mentorship isn't secret knowledge — it's saving you years of consolidating and internalizing it all.
We can't predict, we can only react — and price is the only thing that pays. All indicators in technical analysis are derived in some way from price and therefore lag it. They are delayed indicators. My signal is price, not an indicator, not volume, not opinions. I follow price as a trend follower.
Why does it pay to follow trends? It takes time for institutions to put on a position and they always have to consider liquidity when trading all markets. When institutions chase growing earnings and revenue in growth stocks they tend to find the same few stocks — themes — but they can't put on their huge positions all at once, even if the position will represent only a few percent of their total portfolio. This creates durable trends that can last from months to even years. I try to ride those trends.
A small retail trader cannot possibly compete with the major Wall Street hedge funds and institutions that have hundreds of intelligent PhDs on their payroll, the fastest information and execution flow that cost millions, satellite data, and everything else — including insiders making moves before the news hits the tape. So the only logical conclusion for a small retail trader is to withdraw completely from the idea that you know "better" than the market. The market in its cumulative intelligence — the whole spectrum of funds, traders, gamblers, idiots, and geniuses alike — will always know better.
Then you might say: how could I possibly generate any alpha going up against this? By simply following price and managing risk. The market knows. Take these examples: why does a growth stock top 1–2 years before their peak in earnings? How could oil possibly top on the day of the first Iraq invasion in the Kuwait war? Why didn't wheat trend higher after the Russian invasion of Ukraine? The market always knows — and the good thing is we don't have to ask why to make money.
How anyone can still claim the market is 100% efficient is beyond me. It can absolutely be efficient at times — but anyone who has watched the market in real time, outside of any academic study, knows you cannot possibly claim it is efficient all the time.
How can a stock go up 10% one day and then down 7% the next without any news? Or 30% in one week and then down 50% the next? It's all about supply and demand for stocks. Period. The moment you accept this, a lot of things start to make sense.
The strategy fully embraces the discretionary part of the system. The only rules absolutely set in stone are the risk management rules. Otherwise I employ a combination of fundamental and technical analysis depending on context.
Even as a discretionary trader you can become too rigid and have too many rules. Many traders — even "discretionary" traders — want a rule for every single scenario. That's a fallacy. Optimisation and perfection are not possible in trading. Trading is a game of odds, not certainties. You're navigating probabilities in real time. Over-optimising for certainty destroys the edge.
The strongest edge a retail trader can have is choosing when to participate — unlike a mutual fund, you're not forced to be invested. That means sitting out for periods and hitting the gas during periods of strong, conducive market environments.
My own biggest weakness in trading is overtrading. I'm still sometimes struggling with shifting between defense and offense — this will never be perfect and is a continuous development through a trader's journey.
Avoiding massive drawdowns and bear markets turbocharges compounding. The strategy would not have been long during 2008 and would have started buying again in 2009. Nobody talks about the boring "Big Long" from 2009 onwards — but the real money was made there.
One hour studying markets in real time — not pressing buttons, just watching — is worth more than ten hours studying historical charts.
Trading is all about following a simple process over time. Simplicity over complexity.
Work ethic, intelligence, or time spent means nothing if you can't make money in the markets. That's the beauty of markets — only one thing matters: can you consistently make a profit or not?
Trading is all about managing frustration — it never ends. That is also what makes it stimulating and fascinating. It's an infinitely dynamic world that keeps challenging and testing you.
That is perhaps one of the few truths: the world, and markets, are in constant change. Trends have persisted for millennia and trend following has been a successful concept for centuries. There will always be trends to ride and capitalise on.
Nobody knows how long the AI buildout will last — this year or in 10 years. Potentially it will end with a blowoff top similar to the dotcom bubble, but the strategy is designed to capitalise on it as long as it lasts and then jump off in due time. All previous inventions with lasting changes to society have always provided massive opportunities to make and lose fortunes. Either case, this strategy is equipped to handle what may come.